NEWSROOM > Industry News > Thursday, October 6, 2011

Global economic crisis may have a silver lining in Canada

Thursday, October 6, 2011
The ongoing financial woes in the US and in countries in Europe are one of the contributing factors to Canada's stable housing market and historically low interest rates, and these rates will continue right into mid-to late 2012.

The variable rate, which is based on the Bank of Canada's Prime rate is sitting at 3% and is likely to stay there right up until mid-to-late 2012. The main reason for this is the very slow economy in the US. The Federal Reserve there has already announced that their prime interest rate will not increase until 2013, hoping that it will create a more fertile ground for economic growth. By keeping the rates low, they hope to stimulate borrowing from businesses and consumers. Because the US is a major trading partner, it forces us to keep our rates low to keep our economy growing while we wait for the US and for Europe to catch up.

Fixed rates will start moving up earlier than the variable rate but without major jumps. Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist for CIBC said in an exclusive interview with TMG The Mortgage Group that fixed rates, which depend on bond markets, will remain relatively stable, with small increases, over the next six to eight months.

"It is interesting that, here in Canada, when we believe there will be a slowdown, something happens in the world that helps us and makes our economy stronger," he said. "And because there is uncertainty in world markets, the Bank of Canada won't raise rates until those markets stabilize, which will take some time."

Currently, the Canadian housing market and the economy is stable and balanced. Consumers have been listening - they have slowed the pace of their borrowing and have been working on paying off their debts. It is, indeed, an ideal time, when rates are low, to do that. Tal cautions, however, that low interest rates may fuel an increase in borrowing, which has not happened yet, and this could be worrisome in the long-term.

"Credit is not a bad thing - it is the electricity of the economy," he said. "We want banks and consumers to be responsible with their borrowing."

Low interest rates are attractive but borrowing like there's no tomorrow is dangerous. Eventually those rates will go up and if you're stuck with large lines of credit it may be more difficult to pay them off and could burden the household budget.

There is a window of opportunity now to reduce debt loads and pay them outright. If you would like to discuss your options, please contact me.
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